US Tariff Policy Drove Down Tin Prices [Institutional Commentary]

【Market Review】The SHFE tin index experienced a significant pullback on Monday, in line with expectations.

【Industry Performance】Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) announced that its tin smelter located in Pulau Indah will temporarily halt production due to a gas pipeline explosion near Putra Heights. The explosion occurred on April 1, 2025, disrupting gas supply and affecting the normal operation of the smelting facilities near Port Klang in Pulau Indah. Due to the gas supply interruption, MSC has declared a suspension of production effective immediately until further notice. Currently, there is no specific timetable for the restoration of gas supply. MSC's refined tin production in 2024 was 16,300 mt, making it the fifth-largest refined tin producer globally. MSC stated that this incident may lead to delays in the delivery of some tin metal.

【Core Logic】The sharp decline in tin prices on Monday was a catch-up to the overseas market's abnormal movements caused by US tariff policies during the Qingming period. The underlying reasons include: 1. The actual tariff rates deviated from investors' previous expectations. 2. Global stock markets were significantly impacted, which also affected the futures market. 3. Inflation expectations were revisited. 4. Global economic growth may fall short of expectations. Looking ahead, tin prices may still need several trading sessions to digest the impact of the tariff policies before gradually stabilizing. Some countries have already proposed countermeasures against US tariff policies, while others are still in the process of deliberation. As more tariff policies are implemented, trade protectionism may become more pronounced, potentially exerting greater pressure on global demand. The short-term price collapse effect has not yet ended, and both the stock and futures markets will require several trading sessions to digest the sentiment.

【Nanhua Perspective】Tin prices may continue to experience a slight downward adjustment.

(Source: Nanhua Futures)